Inā manaʻo ʻia e hoʻomau ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai kila ma 2023, ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe o ka koi ʻana i ke kila ma mua o ka hopena o 2022. Vladimir Zapletin / iStock / Getty Images Plus
Wahi a ka hapa nui o ka poʻe pane i kā mākou hōʻike hou ʻana i ka Steel Market Update (SMU), ua emi nā kumukūʻai pāpaʻi a i ʻole ma ka palena o ka lalo.Ke ʻike nei mākou i ka nui aʻe o ka poʻe e wānana i ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai i nā mahina e hiki mai ana.
Ma kahi pae kumu, ma muli o kēia ke ʻike nei mākou i ka piʻi iki o ka manawa alakaʻi - he awelika o 0.5 mau pule i kēia manawa.No ka laʻana, ʻo ka awelika manawa alakaʻi no kahi kauoha ʻōwili wela (HRC) aia ma lalo o 4 mau pule a ʻo 4.4 mau pule i kēia manawa (e ʻike i ke Kiʻi 1).
Hiki i nā manawa alakaʻi ke alakaʻi nui i nā loli kumukūʻai.ʻO ka manawa alakaʻi o 4.4 pule ʻaʻole ia he manaʻo he lanakila-lanakila ke kumu kūʻai kiʻekiʻe, akā inā hoʻomaka mākou e ʻike i nā manawa alakaʻi HRC ma waena o ʻelima a ʻeono pule, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai.
Eia kekahi, ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o nā wili e kūkākūkā i nā kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa ma mua o nā pule i hala.E hoʻomanaʻo i kekahi mau mahina, kokoke i nā mea hana a pau i mākaukau no nā uku no ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana i nā kauoha.
Ua hoʻonui ʻia nā manawa alakaʻi a ua liʻiliʻi nā hale wili liʻiliʻi e makemake e pani i nā kuʻikahi ma hope o ka hoʻolaha ʻana o nā hale kūʻai ʻo US a me Kanada i nā piʻi kumukūʻai o $60 i ke tona ($3 i hoʻokahi haneli) i hoʻokahi pule ma hope o ka Thanksgiving.Ma ka fig.Hōʻike ka Figure 2 i kahi pōkole pōkole o nā manaʻo kumukūʻai ma mua a ma hope o ka hoʻolaha ʻana i ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai.(E hoʻomaopopo: Ua ʻoi aku ka makemake o nā wili panel e kūkākūkā i nā kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa e like me ka mea nāna i hoʻokumu i ka panel alakaʻi ʻo Nucor i hoʻolaha i kahi ʻoki kumu kūʻai he $140 no ka tone.)
Ua hoʻokaʻawale ʻia nā wānana ma mua o ka hoʻolaha ʻana o nā mill panel i nā piʻi kumu kūʻai.Ma kahi o 60% manaʻoʻiʻo e mau nā kumukūʻai ma kahi o ka pae like.He mea maʻamau kēia.ʻO ka mea kupaianaha, kokoke 20% manaʻoʻiʻo e ʻoi aku lākou ma mua o $700/tonne, a ʻo kekahi 20% a i ʻole e manaʻo e hāʻule lākou i $500/tonne.Pīhoihoi kēia iaʻu i kēlā manawa, ʻoiai ʻo $500/tonne kokoke i ka haki ʻana no kahi mea kanu i hoʻohui ʻia, ʻoi aku hoʻi inā ʻoe e helu i ke kumukūʻai i ke kumu kūʻai wahi aelike.
Mai ia manawa, ua ulu ka lehulehu o $700/ton (30%), me ka 12% wale nō o ka poʻe pane e manaʻo nei he $500/ton a i lalo paha i nā mahina ʻelua.He mea hoihoi nō hoʻi ʻo kekahi mau kumukūʻai wānana i ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe ma mua o ke kumu kūʻai hoʻoikaika ikaika o $700/t i hoʻolaha ʻia e kekahi mau wili.Me he mea lā ke manaʻo nei kēia hopena i ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumu kūʻai, a ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei lākou e loaʻa ana kēia hoʻonui hou i ka manawa.
Ua ʻike pū mākou i kahi hoʻololi liʻiliʻi o nā kumukūʻai ma nā kikowaena lawelawe, e hōʻike ana i kekahi hopena hope o nā kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe o ka hale hana (e nānā i ke Kiʻi 3).I ka manawa like, ua hoʻonui ka helu o nā kikowaena lawelawe (11%), e hōʻike ana i ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai.Eia kekahi, ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi (46%) e ʻoki i nā kumukūʻai.
Ua ʻike mākou i kahi ʻano like ma ʻAukake a me Kepakemapa ma hope o ke ʻano o ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai hale hana.I ka hopena, ua hāʻule lākou.ʻO kaʻoiaʻiʻo,ʻaʻole i hoʻokumuʻia ka pule.I kēia mau pule e hiki mai ana, e nānā pono ana au e ʻike inā hoʻomau nā kikowaena lawelawe e hōʻike i ka hoihoi i ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai.
E hoʻomanaʻo hoʻi i hiki i ka manaʻo ke lilo i mea hoʻokele waiwai koʻikoʻi i ka wā pōkole.Ua ʻike mākou i kahi piʻi nui o ka positivity i kēia mau lā.See fig.4.
I ka nīnau ʻana inā manaʻo lākou e pili ana i ka manaʻo no ka hapa mua o 2023, 73% ua manaʻo maikaʻi.Ma muli o ka hana maʻamau o ka hapaha mua, he mea maʻamau ka ʻike ʻana i ka manaʻo maikaʻi i ka makahiki hou.Ke hoʻopiha nei nā ʻoihana i kā lākou mau waihona ma mua o ke kau kūkulu ʻana i ka puna.Ma hope o nā lā hoʻomaha, ua hoʻonui hou ka hana o nā kaʻa.Eia hou, ʻaʻole ʻoe e hopohopo hou e pili ana i nā ʻauhau kālā ma ka hopena o ka makahiki.
Akā naʻe, ʻaʻole wau i manaʻo e manaʻo nui ka poʻe e pili ana i nā poʻomanaʻo e pili ana i ke kaua ma ʻEulopa, nā uku ukupanee kiʻekiʻe a me ka hiki ke hoʻemi.Pehea e wehewehe ai?ʻO ka manaʻo maikaʻi paha e pili ana i ka hoʻolilo ʻana i nā ʻoihana, nā ʻōlelo o ka Inflation Reduction Act e paipai nei i ke kūkulu ʻana i ka makani ikaika a me nā mahiʻai lā, a i ʻole kekahi mea ʻē aʻe?Makemake au e ʻike i kou manaʻo.
ʻO ka mea e hopohopo nui nei iaʻu ʻaʻole mākou e ʻike i nā loli koʻikoʻi i ka noi holoʻokoʻa (e ʻike i ke Kiʻi 5).ʻO ka hapa nui (66%) i ʻōlelo i ke kūlana paʻa.ʻOi aku ka poʻe i ʻōlelo e iho ana lākou (22%) ma mua o ka piʻi ʻana (12%).Inā piʻi mau nā kumukūʻai, pono e ʻike ka ʻoihana kila i ka holomua o ka noi.
Me nā manaʻo maikaʻi a pau a puni 2023, ʻo kahi kumu ʻē aʻe e kahaha ai iaʻu pehea e mālama ai nā kikowaena lawelawe a me nā mea hana i kā lākou waihona.Manaʻo wau hiki iaʻu ke ʻōlelo i kēia manawa ʻo 2021 ka makahiki o ka hoʻihoʻi hou ʻana, ʻo 2022 ka makahiki o ka destocking, a ʻo 2023 ka makahiki o ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana.Pēlā nō paha.Akā ʻaʻole ia e pili ana i nā helu.ʻO ka hapa nui o nā mea pane i kā mākou noiʻi e hoʻomau nei i ka hōʻike ʻana e paʻa ana lākou i kahi waihona, me ka helu nui e hoʻomau nei i ka huki ʻana i nā waihona.He liʻiliʻi wale nō nā waihona hale i hōʻike ʻia.
ʻO ka ʻoihana hana ikaika ma 2023 e hilinaʻi ana i ka wā a mākou e ʻike ai i kahi pōʻai hou.Inā pono wau e koho i hoʻokahi mea e makaʻala ai i nā pule e hiki mai ana ma mua o nā kumukūʻai, nā manawa alakaʻi, nā kamaʻilio hale hana, a me nā manaʻo mākeke, ʻo ia nā mea kūʻai aku.
Mai poina e hoʻopaʻa inoa no ka Tampa Steel Conference February 5-7.E aʻo hou a hoʻopaʻa inoa ma aneʻi: www.tampasteelconference.com/registration.
E loaʻa iā mākou nā luna kiʻekiʻe mai nā hale hana ma US, Kanada a me Mexico, a me nā alakaʻi alakaʻi i ka ikehu, nā kulekele kālepa a me nā geopolitics.ʻO kēia ka manawa mākaʻikaʻi kiʻekiʻe ma Florida, no laila e noʻonoʻo e hoʻopaʻa i ka wā hiki.ʻAʻole lawa nā lumi hōkele.
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